AJ's TSLA Analysis
@alojoh ↗Current Outlook
Latest Deep Dive
Tesla Q4 2025 Financial Deep Dive
AJ's stance: WAIT — don't chase here. The Q4 'beat' was surface-level only. Cash flow will be negative in 2026 due to elevated capex, and Tesla dodged the SpaceX question on earnings (red flag). Stock unlikely to regain $495 before SpaceX IPO provides a catalyst. If you're long, hold — but don't add at current levels. New money should wait for either a pullback or the SpaceX catalyst.
- ACTION: Don't add at current levels — wait for pullback or SpaceX IPO
- Q4 'beat' was surface-level — cash flow negative in 2026
- Red flag: SpaceX question dodged on earnings call
- Price target: Won't regain $495 until SpaceX IPO catalyst
- FSD usage at 41% — technology leadership intact
- Chinese humanoid competition is real threat
- Long-term holders: HOLD. New money: WAIT
AJ's Ongoing Thesis
- FSD usage at record 41%
- Amazon-like cash burn for growth strategy
- Robotaxi + Optimus are the real value drivers
- Auto core is bridge until AI revenue hits s-curve
Previous Deep Dives
All TSLA Posts
Complete post history from AJ
AJ“FSD usage at record 41%, Amazon-like cash burn playbook for growth. The strategy is clear: invest heavily now, harvest later.”
AJ“Q4 2025 Financial Deep Dive — 50+ slides breaking down the numbers. The signal in these results is very strong if you know where to look.”
AJ“Pre-earnings positioning. Q4 numbers will surprise — FSD uptake, margin expansion, and Optimus progress all pointing in the right direction.”
AJ“Robotaxi timeline becoming clearer. Austin launch in Q2 will be the catalyst most are sleeping on. Still accumulating.”
AJ“Full Tesla Analysis with updated 2028 model. Price target $620-680 incorporating Q4 delivery data and updated FSD assumptions.”
AJ“134-minute deep dive with 40+ page report and financial model through 2028. This is the comprehensive Tesla analysis.”
Want real-time updates from AJ on TSLA?
Follow @alojoh on X ↗